Ranges, not single numbers. Reasons, not black boxes.
Pick any SKU on the left. The chart shows 12 months of actual demand plus a 4-week forecast with a confidence band. On the right, the model explains itself — including whether the on-hand number it's built on is trustworthy.
Venison & Sweet Potato Bites 225g
On hand (derived): 412 · 12mo history + 4-week forecast
Why this forecast
- Ledger confidence: medium
Never physically counted in-session — derived from historical ledger only.
- Trend: up 106% over the year
Average monthly demand moved from ~552 to ~1139 units across the last 12 months of actuals.
- Seasonality: strong annual swing
Peak months run about 2.5× the trough. The forecast band widens across the peak window to reflect that.
- Supplier lead time factored in
Yorkshire Dales Meats Ltd — the model reserves cover for its typical replenishment window when suggesting reorder timing.
- Past stockout pattern detected
This pre-Christmas build-up in demand has happened 4 times in the last 5 years. Three of those times it led to a stockout.
Forsupliance never asks you to trust a percentage. Every forecast surfaces the drivers behind it — including whether the on-hand number itself is trustworthy.